History is backing one of the Herons or the Whitecaps to end up on top come the end of the campaign
At the end of Matchday 6, the Vancouver Whitecaps were atop the Western Conference, while Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami led the East.
It wasn’t much of a surprise to see in that spot — they’re the reigning Supporters’ Shield winners and boast an eight-time Ballon d'Or winner. Vancouver, on the other hand, has been a welcome surprise. Under new manager Jesper Sorensen, the Whitecaps are reaching new heights.
For both teams, the rest of the campaign now comes down to two things: winning and doing it consistently. Fortunately for them, history is on their side.
In eight of the last nine MLS seasons (excluding the pandemic-affected 2021 campaign), at least one team that led its conference at the end of March went on to finish first at season’s end. At that point, both Miami and Vancouver sat on 13 points with four wins apiece. Now, it’s a race to see who stays on top through October.
Next up: Matchday 9 – and then 25 more just like it. But if history holds, we might be watching the early stages of a season-long showdown.
GOAL digs in below, expanding on each team's rapid start, and what previous MLS seasons have laid out in expectations for them.
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Dating back to the 2015 MLS season, at least one team leading its conference at the end of March has gone on to finish first in that same conference by season’s end, with the lone exception being 2024. Last year, FC Cincinnati and the LA Galaxy were atop their respective tables at the end of March but finished third and second, respectively. The Galaxy, however, still made a deep run, ultimately claiming their first MLS Cup title since 2014.
Over the past decade, only two teams that led their conference in March went on to miss the playoffs entirely, showing just how often a strong start leads to a competitive finish. That said, it’s only happened twice – in 2015 and 2022 – that both conference leaders at the end of March finished the regular season in first place.
In 2025, Vancouver and Miami will be looking to join that rare company.
Season
Conference
Team
End-of-March position
Final conference position
2024
East
FC Cincinnati
1st
3rd
2024
West
LA Galaxy
1st
2nd
2023
East
New England Revolution
1st
5th
2023
West
St. Louis CITY SC
1st
1st
2022
East
Philadelphia Union
1st
1st
2022
West
LAFC
1st
1st
2022
West
Real Salt Lake
1st
7th
2020
East
Atlanta United
1st
12th
2020
West
Sporting KC
1st
1st
2020
West
Minnesota United
1st
4th
2020
West
Colorado Rapids
1st
8th
2019
East
D.C. United
1st
5th
2019
East
Columbus Crew
1st
10th
2019
West
LAFC
1st
1st
2018
East
NYCFC
1st
3rd
2018
West
Sporting KC
1st
1st
2018
West
Vancouver Whitecaps
1st
8th
2017
East
Atlanta United
1st
4th
2017
East
Columbus Crew
1st
5th
2017
East
New York Red Bulls
1st
6th
2017
West
Portland Timbers
1st
1st
2016
East
CF Montreal
1st
5th
2016
East
Philadelphia Union
1st
6th
2016
West
FC Dallas
1st
1st
2016
West
Sporting KC
1st
5th
2015
East
New York Red Bulls
1st
1st
2015
West
FC Dallas
1st
1st
AdvertisementImagnVancouver's stunning start
After starting the season with four-straight victories, the Whitecaps lost their first match of the season to the Chicago Fire on Matchday 5, but have rebounded with three-straight games without a loss, earning a point against Toronto FC and securing victories over the Colorado Rapids and Austin FC.
Striker Brian White had a career day on Matchday 8, with the U.S. international bagging four goals en route to a 5-1 victory over the Texan side. However, he's just the latest player on the Whitecaps to find form in 2025 under the guidance of Soresensen, who was appointed head coach in the offseason after Vanni Sartini left the club after the conclusion of their 2024 campaign.
Canadian internationals Jayden Nelson and Ali Ahmed, respectively, sit first and second with the most assists for the club this season, with both having relative breakout campaigns.
What makes it even more impressive, though, is that Vancouver has excelled to begin 2025 without arguably their best player in Ryan Gauld – who suffered an injury 24 minutes into their Matchday 3 game against CF Montreal, and is sidelined until late April.
With 17 goals scored through eight matches, the Whitecaps lead the league in scoring, while they also lead the league in assists with 20, a number higher than goals scored due to MLS's secondary-assists model. They've been clinical during this period, too, scoring 17 goals based on an xG of 20.58.
ImagoMiami's continued aim towards excellence
Miami, meanwhile, is just one of two MLS teams – along with the Columbus Crew – to remain unbeaten through eight Matchdays this season. Notably, though, Miami is a team who have already had its bye week, so they've played one fewer match than the likes of Vancouver.
Led by their star quartet of Messi, Luis Suarez, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba, the have had an excellent start to 2025, while Javier Mascherano has adapted to MLS with ease in his first senior head coaching role.
Messi has three regular season goals, while newcomer Telasco Segovia has also banked three in his debut MLS season. Suarez, meanwhile, has struggled in front of net but has been an incredible contributor to his teammates. The Uruguayan leads the team in assists with four, while playing 12 key passes in seven-straight starts as their No. 9.
They've had a slight setback since the end of March, with two-straight draws under their belts in Matchday's 7 and 8, but they've yet to lose a match across the regular season and have proven to be one of the Eastern Conference's most menacing sides to deal with both home and away this season.
AFPWhere to from here
Interestingly enough, data through the end of April dating back to 2018 (excluding 2020 and 2021 seasons due to unforeseen circumstances with scheduling) – which, in 2025, will include results through Matchday 10 – shows that teams sitting in a Top 3 position in either conference, historically, will see at least one end up in first place come the end of the campaign, too.
In what may potentially be in Miami's favor, going back to the 2022 season, the past three teams in the East at the top of the table at the end of April have all gone on to win the regular season conference title. However, in the West, the last team to sit in first at the end of April and go on to win the regular season conference title was LAFC in 2019. For Vancouver, it's not as comfortable of a stat, but what they do have going for them is knowing that going back to 2018, a team that sat in a Top 3 position in the West by the end of the month has gone on to win it every year except for 2024 – with last year's LA Galaxy being the lone team to not follow the trend, but we all know how their season ended. They're in welcome company.
The data is on their side. Now, it's just up to Messi's South Beach franchise and White and the Whitecaps to live up to the expectations now presented ahead of them.
A fascinating few months lie ahead, but coming up, the two sides will actually meet in the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Champions Cup, with Leg 1 next week. Surely, it will be a scintilating matchup – but could it also be a preview of MLS Cup 2025?
Only time will tell, but there are now standards to be met for both clubs, which begs the question: can they meet, or potentially surpass them? We'll wait and see.